Final Match
1st 512 Mami Tomoe @ Puella Magi Madoka Magica (Predicted)
2nd 435 Kyouko Sakura @ Puella Magi Madoka Magica
Update: 2011 Archive is available now, including everything you’ve seen here and more: http://www.megaupload.com/?d=FBS810N0
Update 2: I found errors in both the Champion Poster above and the Semifinal 2 poster that were included in this build. Both posters are fixed on the site but not included in that build which was uploaded to MU last night. For completionists like me, simply download both of those posters and replace the old ones on your computer. A new build of the archive will be released later this month which will include some additional material. Sorry for the errors.
I have to say, I am among those who thought this would be just a little more exciting, like previous years, but when you consider that two of the four megucas were going to make it this far, it’s not surprising that some fans probably abstained from the final match in protest. I also wasn’t thrilled with the all-meguca finish either, but in good stride, I did support Mami in her final rush to clip Sakura for the win.
The last week was a mess for me, due to the power outage I was not able to finish a stack of posts and graphics on time, thus the large dump tonight. Looking back at the tournament, I hate to use the phrase “lame duck” but that is what the year felt like, a lot of turtling to an obvious finish. Some say that it just paves way for 2012, with IM@S, HnG, possibly Saki, and returns of some of this year’s favorites, that it will be like 2010, or every other Microsoft release.
Final Prediction
Predictions
Round One Total: 68-28, 70.8%
Round Two Total: 24-8, 75.0%
Round Three Total: 14-2, 87.5%
Round Four Total: 5-3, 62.5%
Round Five Total: 2-2, 50%
Round Six Total: 2-0, 100%
Round Seven Total: 1-0, 100%
Grand Total: 114-43
Compared to last year, which was 79-32 (71.1% successful prediction rate) this year isn’t going to stack the same since last year used a different format, but the successful prediction rate this year was 72.6%, so I’m up 1.5% this year. Break down by round:
2010 Predictions by Round (2011 Percentage Change)
Round One: 50-22, 69.4% (+1.4%)
Round Two: 21-3, 87.5% (-12.5%)
Round Three: 2-6, 25% (+37.5) (using 2011 R4)
Round Four: 3-1, 75% (-25%) (using 2011 R5)
Round Five: 2-0, 100% (no change) (using 2011 R6)
Final Round: 1-0, 100% (no change) (using 2011 R7)
Total Predictions: 79-32, 71%
So without adjusting for one more round this year than last, I slipped rather badly on the second round this year and gained some ground on the group finals. Part of that was due to the weird vibes this year, characters whom I thought were safe bets for wins got toppled by newcomers. Thankfully my first round improved slightly, so that stays about the same.
Picks
Round One Total: 55-56, 49.5%
Round Two Total: 21-34, 38.1%
Round Three Total: 12-9, 57.1%
Round Four Total: 7-5, 58.3%
Round Five Total: 4-3, 57.1%
Round Six Total: 2-2, 50%
Round Seven Total: 1-1, 50%
Total: 111
The largest pool of favorites this year, and the culling definitely began early, losing a half of the total pool in just one round, and continuing to lose more than win in the second before leveling off in the third through final rounds. Unlike predictions this just runs off of the total number of picks left after each round and runs with it. But for the fourth year in a row, a favorite has won the tournament, which is always fun. Some statistics using last year’s numbers, adjusted slightly for the different round configuration:
2010 Picks by Round (2011 Percentage Change)
Round One Total: 37-32, 53.6% (-4.1%)
Round Two Total: 18-19, 48.6% (-10.5%)
Round Three Total: 7-11, 38.8% (+19.5) (using 2011 R4)
Round Four Total: 4-3, 57.1% (no change) (using 2011 R5)
Round Five Total: 2-2, 50% (no change) (using 2011 R6)
Round Six Total: 1-1, 50% (no change) (using 2011 R7)
Total: 69 (+42)
So even with less favorites last year, I lost quite a bit of ground on the first two rounds before gaining some back in the group finals and tying the semifinals through finals. Finally, with such a large pool of favorites, I listed my “Top Ten Favorites” from the pool that I was rooting for the most, and what round they got to before exiting this year.
Top Ten Favorites
- Sanya V. Litvyak – R2
- Leonmitchelli Galette Des Rois – R1
- Makise Kurisu – R3
- Akemi Homura – R1
- Charlotte Dunois – R3
- Himeji Mizuki – R2
- Gokou “Kuroneko” Ruri – QF
- Eucliwood Hellscythe – R1
- Naganohara Mio – R1
- Kaname Madoka – SF
So what about this year did I like or not like? Well, I’ll rip some headers out of frustra’s post today to summerize:
Favorite/Best Matches?
Not a lot of them stick out for me, but there were plenty of matches I wished had tipped the other way.
Homura v. Misaka
The first match of the tournament and it was almost final-quality in every way, here we found the first (and only) member of the five to fall at the hands of Misaka Mikoto, who was a crowd favorite last year before losing to Azusa. 4chan /a/ threads continued to be trolling/butthurt over it for weeks and Madoka fans certainly responded by elevating the other four to the final eight.
Kurisu v. Lotte
Steins;Gate tried to battle Madoka toe-to-toe early on for the right as a new series to make it to the top, and I certainly supported this venture 100% with Kurisu, unfortunately her rout was cut short by this year’s token Rie, Astarotte Ygvar, by only ten votes. It’s sad to see a march cut short like that, because while Lotte deserved her day, Kurisu I felt deserved it more.
Tenshi v. Erica
Japan’s love for Angel Beats has always perplexed me, because it really was an average show to me. Much like 2010, Tenshi strongarms her way through the first two rounds with ease, but when it comes time to take the final and reach that all important Final Eight, she gets Ceiling Cat’d, once by the Ceiling Cat Yamada Aoi last year, and this year by the up-after-noon Erica Hartmann. Just not enough shielding for the Protoss warrior.
Rose v. Index v. Kirino
There were a few things I was fairly sure of in this year’s tournament. One was a Meguca Finale, and another was a Kirino-Kuroneko duo-poly to the end. But in to troll the day comes Index, who has never gotten past the first round, and she not only wins her first round, but takes her second round, at the expense of Kirino and Rose. Thankfully, no one likes Rose. Along with Ayase’s elimination by Kokoro, the fate of Ore no Imouto, thought to be a force in 2011, was left to Kuroneko.
Kyouko v. Kuroneko
Facing down four megucas in the final eight, it was a hard draw for Kuroneko, and rather than get the statistically weaker Miki, she got Kyouko. Dead End. To lose by under 100 votes makes it not even close though, just wasn’t enough wind in the sails there.
Ika Musume v. Mami
Our last hope for some diversity in the Semifinals rested with the “Invader of the Sea” and unfortunately, she wasn’t much help either, being crushed by 98 votes by Mami. I guess it wasn’t so much crushed as just simply beaten, but that all important rush would have helped Ika, but it came too little too late.
Surprises? Disappointments?
The biggest surprise to me was the feel of this year’s tournament. The wave of newcomers that overcame veterans and sent them packing in the first round blew me away. K-ON!’s early exit set us up for what I thought would be an exciting ending, only to have it dominated by the megucas. Still, I have to say some of the action in the first three rounds was some of the best I’ve seen, and I always enjoy when newcomers fight and win over veterans, keeps the game fresh and it’s always nice to see some fresh faces. The vote totals were rather low this year, and I imagine that has to do with the tightening of foreign bans and apathetic voters. More on this in a moment.
Tournament fixes?
The one thing I hope will remain for next year is the format used this year. I know they like to play with changing formats, more characters, and so on, but one-on-one group finals definitely is the way to go, and having that extra round keeps the game going. That said, I have to chip in on frustra’s idea of expanding the eligible pool in the main draw, because I also would like to see more matches and more characters compete in what is largely seen as the biggest “moe festival” of the summer/fall. But, I don’t want to see it stretch out too long, like ISML. I don’t hate ISML, but it takes forever, and after awhile, you just get bored waiting for the end result.
I would also like (long shot) if 2ch could address this foreign vote issue. A lot of us over here who aren’t complete fuckwads would like to place our vote in this tournament, and I know they don’t like us over there and hate us barging into their tournament, but it makes no sense for us to start our own when we could participate in the largest and most active one each year. I’m sure they can effectively weed out fakes and proxies just as well and still allow us to place a vote. It adds an extra challenge for each character because some are popular over here than others. But I imagine they’re trying to maintain the “purity” of the tournament, and in many ways, I can respect that.
Tournament will be remembered for what?
The obvious answer would be Madoka, but I also think this year will be known for the “anti-establishment” that seems to coincide with other against-the-norm events around the world like Arab Spring and Occupy [x]. In many ways, I felt this was 2ch’s way of saying that there is no room for veterans anymore, with so many new shows and new characters, someone has to go, and some of these veterans have been in every year for the past few.
What series are you expecting to make a big splash next year?
Well the obvious answer is Idolm@aster, which I have yet to see but plan on seeing before next year’s tournament. Out of the currently airing Fall 2011 shows, I also think Boku ha Tomodachi will play a role in next year, as well as Ben-To, UN-GO, and Mirrai Nikki’s Gasai Yuno. Returning though will be popular Hayate no Gotoku which gets a movie this year, potentially Saki if their second season drops, Zero no Tsukiama when their final season drops, and probably more. So 2012 so far is shaping up to be a very tricky year with plenty of returning 2011 favorites in the mix. My body is ready/LADY/squiddin’/URSAIURSAIURSAI/NODOTITS.
What’s next for me?
My immediate plan is to clean up the blog a little bit and put posts in order and such over the next few weeks, as well as release a collection of all of the posters and materials that went into this year’s production. Looking into next year, I am thinking about building an independent website that will collect all of the data and results I’ve done but currently resides in three or four different places, and makes it hard for me to reference previous years. I intend to continue operating in blog format for next year, but I’m trying to standardize my posters so they can be made easier. I’m also looking into the possibility of covering ISML 2012, but I make no promises, mainly because that tournament lasts for quite a long time, and I work a full-time job. I will evaluate that at a later date. I’m also looking into what kind of fun things and features I can offer for next year. Lun’s Fantasy Saimoe was an excellent idea, and I’m hoping that is expanded upon next year. So plenty of things to dwell on and improve as I continue to cover this silly thing. Hopefully next year we won’t lose power during the final week as well.
Credits, Acknowledgments, and Thanks
My usual thanks always goes to Anon of AnimeSaimoe.org who has been doing this since I can remember, provides excellent stats and data mining, and whose graphics was my inspiration for getting into this mess in the first place. Second is blog bros frustra, lun, and chaosprophet of Saimoe Reporter who are always on top of the scene and do way better posters than I can manage still. Other bloggers, twitterbros, ircbros, and various folks include cowboybibimbop, Game8910, Micchi, daze (and all of his masterful trolling and lust for Kuroneko), and Ando for the vote tracker. Lastly, thanks to 4chan /a/ for providing another year of non-stop lawls, butthurt, tearlicking, and all the great things you guys do in keeping this tournament fun for everyone at your expense. My coffee cup is raised for you.
I also want to thank all of the referrals and folks who came over to here from other sites/blogs covering the tounament, including folks from seriousmoe.wordpress.com and MCAnime.net, both Spanish-speaking sites, but good to know they’re on the scene. To give you an idea, here is a cut from the referrers for 365 days, ending 2011-11-06:
Referrer – Total Hits
saimoe.wordpress.com – 863
seriousmoe.wordpress.com – 221
mcanime.net – 86
Twitter – 61
forums.animesuki.com – 60
Google – 50
tldranimu.wordpress.com (my anime blog) – 41
boards.4chan.org – 21
omochikaeri.wordpress.com – 10
Also, some popular search terms for the lulz:
saimoe 2011 223
tldr saimoe 87
saimoe reporter 28
nichijou gifs mio 24
madoka kaname 20
saimoe current match 19
tldrsaimoe 17
steins gate feyris 15
saimoe 12
nako oshimizu 11
mami vs hidan no aria 11
saimoe realtime 10
As always, even if they won’t accept it because I am a dirty American, thanks to 2ch and Japan for providing us with another year of exciting tournament action.
Thanks for another great year guys, stay tuned for off-season news and updates and forward any comments you like below. I also intend to continue lurking in #saimoe so if you’re on there, say hi. Or don’t. It’s all good. You can also follow my year-round animu blog at tldranimu.wordpress.com and Twitter @tldranimu for more pointless banter.
Also, Happy EFG Day.
Delta
SaiMadoka 2011 